.025 Percent: A Momentous Decision

Some approximations place the size of the Saudi Arabian royal family at over 30,000 members, 4,000 of whom are princes awarded a monthly salary. Given polygamy's legality in the Kingdom, estimates show this number only expanding, potentially reaching 60,000 within the turn of the decade. Therefore, when it comes to appointing a new King or Crown Prince, a 
momentous decision must be made. 

At 89 years-old, King Abdullah al-Saud is certainly
reaching the end of his tenure. 

King Abdullah al-Saud underwent a significant medical procedure on his back last week, enduring an eleven hour surgery and bringing to mind the mortality of the 89-year-old Saudi Arabian leader. Abdullah is the fifth son of the Kingdom’s founder, Ibn Saud, and has presided over Saudi Arabia since August of 2005. The oil-magnate of a country has thrived under Abdullah’s leadership, but as the ruler’s age increases and health deteriorates, political analysts are beginning to look towards the future, speculating as to who will ascend the throne of the Saudi Kingdom. 
The current crown prince, comparable in stature to the American Vice-President, is Prince Salman, also son of Ibn Saud. But at 76-years-old himself, Salman does not present a long-term solution for the Kingdom. The more immediate problem, however, lies in who will replace Salman as Crown Prince, a decision that will shape the Kingdom for years to come. Abdullah’s half-brothers --Prince Sultan, Prince Nayef, Prince Ahmed, and Prince Muqrin-- seemed to be logical choices for this position, but the death of the first two and resignation of the latter two has muddied the waters. Consequently, there has been much talk about skipping to the next generation and appointing one of King Abdulaziz’s grandsons as the next Crown Prince. Although a decision of this nature is certain to trigger some reactionary sentiment, a generational gap in leadership is becoming more and more likely. 

The Kingdom’s changing of the guard will undoubtedly possess considerable worldwide implications, extending beyond the Middle East and into the global sphere. The leader of the world’s largest oil producer has a certain authority over the international market and interstate relations. Whether this new ruler’s policies favor the right or the left, alliances will be formed and reformed. Seeing as Saudi Arabia is a prominent power in the Middle East, any action taken or policy adopted will almost certainly be emulated by the adolescent and fertile governments formed as a result of the Arab Spring.

It’s a peculiar situation, in that there exists no clear-cut method for determining the next King or Crown Prince. Rather, “the Kingdom's tribal traditions dictate that a new king and senior family members select the heir they consider fittest to lead,” making the looming decision even more difficult. Many members of the royal family oppose this generational jump for fear of having their own lineage excluded from present and future leadership. But on the other hand, the Arab Spring has illustrated above all else that Middle Eastern nations are straying from tradition. No longer is an appeal to tradition an acceptable fallacy.
Whatever decision is reached, the most important aspect is popular support, as citizens no longer fear rebellion against that which they do not approve of.

**Click here for an interesting perspective on the upcoming power transition**